Mirai tree sale

[Drewski]

Why would you not use a tree of a comparable standard to decide if another was overpriced?

So your argument boils down to “Why would I pay a lot of money for a tree that has been in training for 8 years, has been styled and potted into a bonsai pot, when I could buy a raw tree for so much less?” Your question pretty much answers itself, but seeing as you can’t see that I think @smc does a pretty good job of breaking it down.

It’s easy for you to prove us wrong though. Get yourself a bald cypress and go to work on it. Eight years from now you can post pictures of it, and show us why we shouldn’t have doubted you.

 

[Colorado]

OK, let's summarize the sale at this point.

It looks like 7 trees are still available, so 26 sold. From what I could tell, it looks like out of those 26 trees that sold, 4 of them cost more than $5000. Those were:

1) Rocky Mtn Juniper for $14,000
2) Limber Pine $7,200
3) J Maple for $5,800
4) Ponderosa Pine $5,400

Of the trees that remain:

1) Rocky Mtn Juniper $10,500
2) Rocky Mtn Juniper $9,500
3) Rocky Mtn Juniper $6,400
4) Limber Pine $6,800
5) Limber Pine $6,200 (former National Exhibition tree)
6 )Pom $2,600
7) Pom $2,200

So I think we can see that $5,000 is kind of the "break point" price-wise.

I'm quite surprised that neither of the 2 remaining Limber Pines have sold - one was in the National Show in 2018. Both look to me to be good values for someone willing to spend that much for a tree. I'd strongly consider the tall one if I was in that camp but that is a huge step up for me in terms of cost. Also not sure how well Limber Pine would do in my climate. Maybe that is what is hold others back as well.

Other surprise - that second trident forest sold. I think it's a nice group of trees in a nice pot, but seemed over-priced. Then again, it was less than $5,000.

Not surprised that those two pomegranates are still unsold. They are not attractive to me. Maybe I'm not seeing the future potential.

The $10,000 juniper is my favorite. Expensive taste I guess

 

[Timarsen]

Why would you not use a tree of a comparable standard to decide if another was overpriced?

The trees you are comparing are pre-bonsai, not potted up, never styled, so not comparable at all... Maybe you should study up on how bonsai are crafted and you'll understand why you're comparing apples to oranges.

 

[BobbyLane]

i think with a decent skill level, it wouldnt be very hard to get the $995 cypress looking like the mirai one. everything is there, a trunk, taper, flat root system, apical leader and well placed branches, in that respect theyre comparable.
the branches on the mirai one are not that thick/matured. the leader on it has decent girth though, while both still have the flat transition in top, there is a case to say the cheaper one has a better base/nebari

i know which one i would choose to start with.

 

[badatusernames]

i think with a decent skill level, it wouldnt be very hard to get the $995 cypress looking like the mirai one. everything is there, a trunk, taper, flat root system, apical leader and well placed branches, in that respect theyre comparable.
the branches on the mirai one are not that thick/matured. the leader on it has decent girth though, while both still have the flat transition in top, there is a case to say the cheaper one has a better base/nebari

i know which one i would choose to start with.
View attachment 393231

I don't know how to work BCs in terms of aesthetics so grain of salt, but I think I agree with you, the one on the right is more interesting to me. These grow really fast don't they? Side by side, it definitely does seem to make the case, especially given the speed at which these are supposed to grow and the fact that the chop is till quite visible on the one on the left. It doesn't really seem ready for a pot, does it?

That's not smack talk, that's me trying to learn, I'm open to feedback.

I also know nothing about harvesting these things but I can say that my buddy in Florida thinks bonsai folks are nuts to be spending $1k+ on them haha

 

[BobbyLane]

I don't know how to work BCs in terms of aesthetics so grain of salt, but I think I agree with you, the one on the right is more interesting to me. These grow really fast don't they? Side by side, it definitely does seem to make the case, especially given the speed at which these are supposed to grow and the fact that the chop is till quite visible on the one on the left. It doesn't really seem ready for a pot, does it?

That's not smack talk, that's me trying to learn, I'm open to feedback.

you see i was left confused, i kinda thought they were fast growers, but if the mirai one is in training 8 years i thought the branches would be more matured, which left me thinking they must be slow growers, in which case the cheaper one could be real decent in just 5 years. investment wise, its a good project.

 

[smc]

i think with a decent skill level, it wouldnt be very hard to get the $995 cypress looking like the mirai one. everything is there, a trunk, taper, flat root system, apical leader and well placed branches, in that respect theyre comparable.
the branches on the mirai one are not that thick/matured. the leader on it has decent girth though, while both still have the flat transition in top, there is a case to say the cheaper one has a better base/nebari

i know which one i would choose to start with.
View attachment 393231

FWIW, I agree with this.

In terms of math, if Mirai is starting w/ $1k raw stock, a $500 pot, is going to cover its overhead & costs for 8 years and earn some profit - it needs to charge $3k.

But if someone has time and doesn't mind putting in the effort - why not start with the raw material, buy one's own pot and wait a few years? I personally would take the raw material here, even if I understand the pricing.

As far for the collected limber pines or junipers, I could never replicate that no matter how hard I tried. So that makes Mirai a better choice if I wanted that tree.

 

[BobbyLane]

FWIW, I agree with this.

In terms of math, if Mirai is starting w/ $1k raw stock, a $500 pot, is going to cover its overhead & costs for 8 years and earn some profit - it needs to charge $3k.

But if someone has time and doesn't mind putting in the effort - why not start with the raw material, buy one's own pot and wait a few years? I personally would take the raw material here, even if I understand the pricing.

As far for the collected limber pines or junipers, I could never replicate that no matter how hard I tried. So that makes Mirai a better choice if I wanted that tree.

Thats more fun for many including me, but i can see the appeal in buying finished trees, as you say some of the high level pines are not easy to come by, or get to that level.

 

[Woocash]

The trees you are comparing are pre-bonsai, not potted up, never styled, so not comparable at all... Maybe you should study up on how bonsai are crafted and you'll understand why you're comparing apples to oranges.

Ah yes, it is certainly a shame I don’t posses your vision of how to get sold an idea.

 

[coh]

Sounds like those remaining Mirai trees are now 10% off. Get 'em while you can!

 

[Woocash]

FWIW, I agree with this.

In terms of math, if Mirai is starting w/ $1k raw stock, a $500 pot, is going to cover its overhead & costs for 8 years and earn some profit - it needs to charge $3k.

But if someone has time and doesn't mind putting in the effort - why not start with the raw material, buy one's own pot and wait a few years? I personally would take the raw material here, even if I understand the pricing.

As far for the collected limber pines or junipers, I could never replicate that no matter how hard I tried. So that makes Mirai a better choice if I wanted that tree.

But do you really think mirai has had this tree for 8 years? I’d be disappointed if I’d had this tree for 8 years and this was all I’d achieved in that time, starting from the 995 tree.

 

[Hartinez]

My .2

The trees you are comparing are pre-bonsai, not potted up, never styled, so not comparable at all... Maybe you should study up on how bonsai are crafted and you'll understand why you're comparing apples to oranges.

@Woocash is newer to the art, but I assure you he knows well enough about what he’s looking at to give himself an informed position. I’ve been on this site for a minute and seen his prebonsai long enough to know that. But take that as you may.

as someone who sells shit for sometimes really expensive amounts and has also sold basically the same thing for drastically less, arguing over a dollar amount means nothing. Stuff is worth what people will pay for it. Period. I know this has been said. But this sale is as true a point to that as it gets. I personally would not buy any of these at the price listed. But this sale is not for me. And me saying they are not worth it, to me, means nothing, because obviously they are worth it. Or they wouldn’t have sold.

 

[badatusernames]

The only reason I get a little twitchy is because Ryan is such a figurehead of the bonsai community and one of the first people you're going to find when you start poking around the internet after seeing your first mallsai. I sorta don't want the high end equivalent of this to be the impression they get:

'Virgil' the Eastern Red Cedar - Specimen Bonsai

I’m Virgil, the Eastern Red Cedar or the Juniperus virginiana. I'm a 33+ year old specimen tree in the Slanting Style of bonsai. I'm a slow growing coniferous evergreen tree native to eastern North America from southeastern Canada to the Gulf of Mexico and east of the Great Plains. I’m known for...

dandyfarmer.com

But also, I didn't study in Japan under a bonsai master and I'm not succeeding at building a visible, modern, international business. I'm a hobbyist who takes stuff like the dandy farmer link and turns it into something else.

I'm also still new enough by any real metric that I can envision a world where part of what you're purchasing is the ability to call Mirai up and have them come style it willingly every year for a cost. While to my eye it's not pot-ready (and it may be an uneducated eye), watching it evolve over time under his care while he also cares for all your other expensive bonsai tree may be a large part of what you're buying. My understanding is that services like this are actually the bulk of his business.

I doubt if I plunked my BC into my Nao he'd be too interested in popping by, but maybe I should give it a shot and see if I summon the Bonsai Whisperer.

 

[coh]

as someone who sells shit for sometimes really expensive amounts and has also sold basically the same thing for drastically less, arguing over a dollar amount means nothing. Stuff is worth what people will pay for it. Period. I know this has been said. But this sale is as true a point to that as it gets. I personally would not buy any of these at the price listed. But this sale is not for me. And me saying they are not worth it, to me, means nothing, because obviously they are worth it. Or they wouldn’t have sold.

You've said it, I've said it, others have said it.

There's just a lot of jealousy out there. People are jealous of Ryan's success. People are jealous that they can't afford his trees. People think they can easily reproduce what he has created. Well, let's see it. @Woocash , you have a lot to say on the subject. The clock is ticking. Let's see what all your trees look like in 6 or 8 years.

 

[leatherback]

You've said it, I've said it, others have said it.

There's just a lot of jealousy out there. People are jealous of Ryan's success. People are jealous that they can't afford his trees. People think they can easily reproduce what he has created. Well, let's see it. @Woocash , you have a lot to say on the subject. The clock is ticking. Let's see what all your trees look like in 6 or 8 years.

not sure the jealous is fair.

Still wondering why the potentilla fetched such high value. must be missing something

 

[Hartinez]

You've said it, I've said it, others have said it.

There's just a lot of jealousy out there. People are jealous of Ryan's success. People are jealous that they can't afford his trees. People think they can easily reproduce what he has created. Well, let's see it. @Woocash , you have a lot to say on the subject. The clock is ticking. Let's see what all your trees look like in 6 or 8 years.

I don’t think @Woocash is jealous, I just don’t think he feels the trees are worth it to HIM. That’s absolutely fine. Woo cash has been nothing but a good dude and quality member. So he doesn’t like Ryan or he his style of tree or teaching. Nothing wrong with that.

 

[Hartinez]

I don’t think @Woocash is jealous, I just don’t think he feels the trees are worth it to HIM. That’s absolutely fine. Woo cash has been nothing but a good dude and quality member. So he doesn’t like Ryan or he his style of tree or teaching. Nothing wrong with that.

And I don’t think woocash posting up his trees as a “show me don’t tell me” situation solves anything. In some cases yes, in this case. No

 

[coh]

I don’t think @Woocash is jealous, I just don’t think he feels the trees are worth it to HIM. That’s absolutely fine.

Sure - they're not worth it to me either. I'd love to have that literati-style limber pine, but I'm not willing to spend $6,000 on it. However, that doesn't mean I don't think it's worth it - I think someone should snap it up at that price and I'll be surprised if it doesn't sell.

And I don’t think woocash posting up his trees as a “show me don’t tell me” situation solves anything. In some cases yes, in this case. No

I think you're wrong on this but we can agree to disagree. People have said the trees look more like stock in fancy pots, or how easy it would be to take a piece of stock like that bald cypress and turn it into a show tree. Well, then do it. Put Ryan out of business! It's not easy, it takes time, and that's part of the value of these trees.

 

[coh]

not sure the jealous is fair.

Still wondering why the potentilla fetched such high value. must be missing something

They probably had the container alone priced at $1,000 or more (just browse through their Jonathan Cross listings). Of course, that leads to the related question "are their container prices too high?" Which leads back to, are people buying them at those prices? Etc.

 

[BobbyLane]

Ryan shows people how to style a tree like the BC on his streams and much higher levels of styling. the BC isnt one of his best in terms of styling and refinement and im a fan of his work.
i would say again, i like that he works with all types of material, and that many of his trees are indeed attainable to many in the hobby and from his streams he shows people how to work material like this. more people should be taking this ethos and applying it to their own trees. dont be in awe, be inspired.