I've spent the last year working as part of a government-coordinated (not government-controlled) multidisciplinary team studying climate change in New England, including root causes, current conditions, and future outlooks based on a review of all of the data, the top-eight mathematical models, and all of the contrarian views. There were well over 100 scientists engaged in the program to advise the governor on the issue, the implications, and the mitigation. We looked at historic models reaching back into the 1970s, some of which had different predictive outputs than today's models. The data is clear, the contemporary model complexity is astonishing, model verification is good, and the science has converged to indicate that anthropogenic climate change is real and it is happening and it is happening quite quickly (compared to natural levels as indicated by the glacial/geologic record).
The 1970s models were like Apollo 11 computation-level. The current models are like SpaceX computation-level. The vast numbers of inputs in today's models actually buffer each other quite well so that no errant dataset has undue influence. Loops and feedbacks and all that. So, the models are good. People calling up the '70s models to prove that we don't know squat, well, let's just say that some people just don't get it and they never will. Their politics drive their opinion of everything and there is no changing that.
I really don't care about the politicization of climate, or the selected-pick-point BS of the deniers, or any of that, all of which are evident above. It snowed yesterday so there is no climate change. Uh, OK. The weather forecast was wrong today. Whatever, Dude. I don't do climate argument because deniers think that they know everything when they actually know nothing except their politics. When you get a brain tumor, go ahead and argue with your MD. Believe what you want to believe. But that doesn't change the conclusions of best-effort science that has been run through countless tests to determine its statistical rigor. The reality is that the deniers are going to deny, most people will shrug their shoulders, and the rest of us will do what we can to mitigate the problem. Let's just say that I am glad that I don't have kids because they or their kids are going to be facing a strange new world because we are a FUBAR society that has been fractured by profit-by-polarization conservative media and people who think that community/cultural solutions to big problems are Marxist or whatever. I'm a scientist. I do science. I am a ski patroller and ski 30+ days/season. I don't want climate change. I want it to be not true. But the data is crystal clear. I've read the papers. I've done the math.
Now to trees. I am in New England and I have had a severe case of conifer derangement syndrome. I have about 23 different species and 70+ varieties here with a current tree count of over 450 specimens and another 2000+ in cone trays ranging from 0 to 5 years. I have 23 ponderosa pines in bonsai culture and they like sunny, drier conditions. This year was anomalously dry, and they had a great year. A wicked great year. A few years ago, in wet conditions, they were plagued with sooty mold and a subsequent reduction in phosyn activity. Following year was a no-to-low bud count. I've learned that I need to move the trees in and out of the polyhouse to protect them from excessive rain and also keep them out as much as possible to maximize their exposure to full sun. And I've done this now for a few years and it's working. Among other practices, I am careful to not change the compass orientation of the trees so that the solar radiation patterns are constant, as they would be in nature. I also have to spend more time dealing with ventilation in the polyhouse. Watering is more complicated. It's a balancing act but that's OK, it's just another challenge.
While I have no faith in humanity, I do have faith in nature. I recently learned about the concept of epigenetics (via a neuroscientist who was a fellow climate working-group member) and that triggered a deep dive into the scientific literature. Epigenetics is essentially the ability to adapt within a single lifetime. This is obviously adaptation at the molecular/DNA level. Studies of older trees have revealed that the coding at the apical meristem/terminal bud can be quite different from the coding at the base of the trunk (the early plant). This is a remarkable thing. So as climate changes around them, the trees may have the potential to comparatively quickly code for their own adaptation/survival and, again, rapidly send that adaptive code into their propagules/seed/cones. This is adaption in place versus getting overwhelmed by change - in astoundingly short timeframes. This is all a newer area of study but it is most interesting because, for instance, out west in ponderosa pine/Doug fir country, there is a big (BIG) concern that climate change may push conditions beyond what PP and DF require for germination/replacement. Maybe epigenetic activity can prevent or - more likely- forestall the problem. There are lots of ongoing studies about PP and DF and other conifers because of their commercial importance. Of course, this is not relevant to bonsai culture as we don't have 10,000 reps of every plant to test hypotheses.
So ultimately, I think that in the future it will take more effort to keep some of the plants that we love. Today, the more artic, boreal, hemiboreal, or montane the plants, the harder it is to keep them. Many hobbyists will likely move on to plants with wider tolerance envelopes, which is something that I've had to do with some of my dwarf willows of northern latitudes. It's become almost impossible to keep some of them alive because the environmental conditions are moving away from optimality and then the secondary agents come in to kill them (i.e., for instance, to eat them). Alpine plant enthusiasts really have their work cut out for them. So you have to decide ... do the extra work ... or culture plants that can tolerate what's happening.
Just my $0.02 and that's it. No debates, thanks.
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