I think bonsai is getting both harder and easier at the same time. But I think there's more to it than just "it's harder because the expectations are higher".
It's easier for people who have a good nose for competence even when they're new to a field or space, and are very good at managing their information diet and selecting good information sources, and/or are willing to reach out to people and "travel to the teacher" as Michael Hagedorn puts it.
But when
@NaoTK says this:
I think this is actually a great example of it becoming
easier for some people. These young artists may be in a more competitive, more technically-dense field than it was a couple decades ago, however, these are still people for whom it is actually still easier overall. Why? Because these are folks who have even
heard of ebihara roots, field growing, and taper.
That's a huge selection bias! Maybe not an interesting point for bonsai club attendees. Maybe not interesting for Bnut members. Maybe the Mirai members are snickering at the back.
But come to reddit, instagram, or tiktok, where the actual masses are, and get the true firehose sampling of actual societal involvement in bonsai. There you will witness the bigger reality of bonsai, where the beginners are being handed a real shit sandwich of misinformation, mallsai, and seed kits, and have a hard time escaping it.
@PowerTap said something about influencers -- they're not all good influencers (influences?), and neither are the vendors found through typical methods (via google or local shops).
I claim with no evidence but strong suspicion (largely because I moderate a ~280,000 user subreddit) that the non-club, non-forum beginner bubble is many times larger than all the "competent" bonsai scenes combined. Metaphorically-speaking, if they are the salmon, then the stream they are swimming against is an furious river of junk information, junk products, and outright cynical vendors (particularly the seed kit people, who are sowing widespread disappointment moreso than trees). What chance does a person have at succeeding at bonsai when the garden center tells them that a podocarpus or juniper is perfectly fine to put indoors?
I personally can't find a good reason to dismiss the "beginner bubble" as somehow "not part of" Jonas's question, and not part of this discussion.
But they are out there, and my claim is that bonsai is becoming both harder and easier at the same time because we have diverging groups:
- The lucky: Find sources (whether IRL or internet) within the first month of interest <-- it's become MUCH easier for these folks
- The unlucky: Shit sandwich of misinfo / seed kits / mallsai, tree dies in under 3 months <-- MUCH harder for these folks because the dropout rate is significant
The unlucky are a very big group if you are sampling with a widely-cast net!