I've recovered pines from this "state" successfully and you can too, if you are careful.
That "state" is summarized as "
foliage can draw water amount X, but soil holds 50X water, and I've started work on the tree before addressing the 50X part. Oops". In this case though, the capacity for water retention was increased. FWIW now, never slip pot a pine which is already in a Neptune-sized amount of soil into a Jupiter-sized amount of soil while also falling for the "
don't worry I didn't mess with the roots" myth.
You actually
do want to mess with the roots because the first goal when onboarding a nursery pine is to transition it (gradually, possibly a half at a time) into a media which is coarse, durable, porous, pea-sized, non-decaying, well-draining, and of a globally homogenous characteristic. The entire root system, interior and exterior, should as quickly as possible and before major reductions/work get into a mass of soil which is of 1 consistent characteristic, doesn't decay, doesn't hold a lot of water (important for pines), and is not much larger than the bounding volume of the root system. Note that by "homogenous" I mean one strategy across the entire mass rather than 1:1:1 in some places, nursery soil in other places, native soil in other places, etc. 1:1:1 or 1:1 or 1:2 etc are still homogenous, but if your fresh clean volcanic media is surrounding a toaster oven sized blob of dense/decaying/water-retentive elder media, that is a recipe for the situation seen in this thread.
Going forward:
- Avoid spraying anything from now on as you want to allow foliage to remain as productive as possible and virtually anything you apply has the effect of inhibiting that. Pests and pathogens are a product of the potting/horticulture and too much moisture retention as opposed to any other factor. Any chemical or oil that you apply to this tree that inhibits photosynthesis in any way just draws you into the vicious cycle of weakening, and invites more pests to attack weak foliage / roots / limbs.
- Don't be tempted to fertilize hard just because someone says to. You can further inhibit the transport of water out of the soil and through the tree by adding fertilizer and building up salts. Take it easy with fertilizer, it's not required and with the kinds of summers we've been getting in the PNW lately, sun and heat are a far bigger help in recovery than osmocote or miracle gro. Even if it's super duper tempting, err on the cautious side. Take it from someone who made all the mistakes with big-pot nursery pines but saw a major improvement once my practices were changed.
- Water
dramatically less often -- if you're in the PNW it wouldn't surprise me if you still had moisture in the very center of the soil mass in mid-March even if you stopped watering today (early Oct). There's a very good chance that moisture takes weeks to cycle out of this pot. Job #1, by far, is to help the entire soil mass go through dry/moist cycles as opposed to staying constantly wet. This is the #1 issue for a weak pine. The faster the moist/dry/moist/dry cycle is, in the presence of ample sun, the faster recovery happens.
- Keep the tree in the sunniest spot in your garden, and if you have two locations with identical sun exposure, choose the one with more air flow. Don't shelter from the sun.
- You can hasten the cycling of moisture out of a pot with some pot aeration. You can also hasten cycling of moisture by leaving the pot tipped at an angle. If you do one thing on this list, these two actions alone make a pretty big difference in reducing water retention time, which recall is job #1
- Don't unwire. It's just gonna beat up the cambium which interferes with flow of sap which interferes with cycling moisture via photosynthesis, and will interfere with root growth this fall. The wire is already on the tree and is motionless. There's nothing more to be done and it has no new effect on the tree. Any damage that was done from wiring happened on wiring day. Any further damage happens on unwiring day.
- Wait for major progress in foliage growth before making big moves. It will be a slow frustrating process to wait for this tree to recover.
In the future, the process for onboarding a nursery pine that came in a BIG pot with either elderly soil, native soil, nursery soil, or anything other than a pure volcanic, insta-draining mix, should go something like this:
- Willingly suffer the ~2 seasons that it takes to transition that pine out of that soil through half bare rootings, or via something like Tom Fincell's top-down repot method, or via a Ryan Neil style "work the roots hard externally but average the soil characteristics between interior/exterior" strategy. If the sound of 2 or 3 years of transition before fun begins sucks, then now you know why professionally grown pre-bonsai cost money, or why yamadori have a 2+ year recovery cycle, or why some of us like growing from seed in pure volcanic media with an early focus on roots, or why some choose to stick to broadleaf deciduous that can be barerooted quickly and recover quickly. Coniferous nursery stock is a shortcut in one way, but it adds time in another way. Tradeoffs everywhere.
- Wait to work on the pine until that transition is done and the pine has signalled recovery with bushy/running shoots. Some get away with rushing past this, but with a slow pine, and IME, usually not. And if soil retains lots of water and total leaf surface area is small, it eventually bites the grower in the butt.
- Always after that, as you work your way towards a bonsai pot, keep in mind that the amount of foliage on a pine must never be vastly overshadowed in water capacity in the soil. True for all bonsai but especially pine. Once you master this aspect of pine, you become one of the pine growers who seem to just make it look effortless. Pathogens and pests become much less of an issue and you mostly adopt a "pines are bulletproof" mentality after this.
If this were my pine, I wouldn't rush to repot in 2023, but instead focus on assisting the pine with water transport as described above, and I would try to get exceptionally precise at assessing moisture levels deep within the core of the pot (use a chopstick as a dipstick, dig deep with your fingers, etc etc). Any time I'd get a sign of moisture deeper within, I'd hold off on watering -- the roots have moisture. I'd then wait for nicer stronger shoots with longer, more lustrous, sharper needles, and hope for larger/plumper bud development at the end of 2023 (edit:
KEY if you have nice needles coming out in 2023, do not allow the appearance of elder needles to generate panic that sends the hand towards the spray bottle. Hands off the spray bottle. Those elder needles already suck in 2022, they'll suck more next year). That would in turn set me up for the first working of the roots to transition out of the dense / heterogenous / overly water-retentive mix. A misstep in pine potting is costly in time but if it ain't dead yet, it's completely possible to recover.