If you do it long enough, it becomes second nature to notice dry soil ON SIGHT--which is the aim of good watering practices. Lift test becomes secondary. I do this with all my trees, even the 125 lb one.
I don't rely on any single method. I would say:
(1) I can often tell on sight if the trees need water - particularly deciduous. There are small signs in the appearance of the foliage - they start to droop slightly, and the color starts to gray out ever so slightly. This is particularly apparent if you are looking over a bench of trees and they all start to take on the same slightly "parched" look.
(2) I lift pots. It's not that one pot is "heavy" versus another is "light", rather you know when the pot feels like dry versus when watered. Particularly if you have over 100 trees in Anderson flats or the same-sized nursery containers, you can tell the difference.
(3) I feel the surface 1" of the soil. If the soil is dry down to 1", and only damp below that, it is time to water. If I don't know the condition of the soil below that level, it is time to repot the tree
I should never have a tree (here in NC) where the top of the soil is bone dry and the bottom of the soil is saturated. Note - this depends a little on where you live, in SoCal when the Santa Anas were blowing the soil surface dried quite quickly.
I personally would never trust a moisture meter because there are too many ways that you can get a bad/inconsistent reading. As an example, if you own a moisture meter try this simple test. On one plant take 10 different readings in different parts of the soil. Are they all consistent? Probably not. Now what? Do you average them? Take the lowest? Take the highest?
I find that if you have the time to use a moisture meter, you have more than enough time to poke the soil with your finger and lift the pot.
Also, this is not intended to be a flame, but if you are having trouble with understanding moisture in your soil, it may be because you are using an organic soil mix, where the moisture levels from the top to the bottom of the soil are much less consistent.