Just adding an update here to share my progress. I had been assuming there was some kind of pathological issue affecting my tree as folks can see just by reading the previous posts. However, spending more time reading about fungus like anthracnose the part that did not really make sense to me is that this fungus is relatively dormant in winter and it is most active in Spring and Summer. However, my oak tree seemed to really decline toward late fall and continue it's significant leaf drop and twig dieback throughout the winter season.
So I was feeling less convinced about that diagnosis. I did apply the broad spectrum fungicide and bactericide Phyton-27 in late January (two applications ~10 days apart) as well as a Lime Sulfur dormant spray in early January (25:1 dilution relatively strong). Neither of those applications really seemed to have a significant impact on the die back which continues to this day. The yellowing and dropping of leaves has been a fairly constant progression throughout the entirety of winter.
I spoke with another very experienced professional about my tree and he suggested it was likely the cumulative stress of suboptimal care, suboptimal growing conditions, repotting and a transition to a new environment over the course of 2024 which was leading the tree to abandon its weakest growth areas. From what he could see of my pictures the die back and leaf-drop was much less pronounced in the tips and it seems like the tree has buds set for the coming year which are still active. So his guess is that the tree was just trying very hard to balance energy and abandoning everything that may be old, weak, or afflicted by other issues as a result of the tree being weak and unable to put up a strong resistance overall.
He suggested that the tree probably did not *need* to be repotted and most likely would have a weakened flush this growing season but with quality care and growing conditions, the buds that would be set during the course of the 2025 growing season would contribute to what would hopefully be a step toward full recovery and by the 2026 growing season we may see the tree shifting to be much healthier, stronger and not suffer from the die back of old growth anymore.
However he said repotting the tree into a grow box would help over the long-term and so although it was not necessary it would be a fine step to take based on my own personal goals. If I was OK with a much longer timeline for this tree, knowing that going into a growbox would likely set back the ability to get this tree into a bonsai container as it would grow coarser roots and coarser foliage but it would help the tree become more vigorous over the coarse of 2-3 growing seasons, that it would be up to me if I wanted to do that.
And so I did decide in the end to take that step. I really wanted to make sure the quality of the soil was not a huge issue or limiting factor and because I could not really see what the soil was like below the surface it was just an area of doubt and uncertainty for me that I felt much better about knowing exactly what the roots and the soil looked like over the coming years. And I was also more inclined to set the tree up for maximum health and vigor and knowing that most likely multiple areas of branching and structure need to be re-developed.
Starting off:
For the most part the root ball looked good except for this one area where there were a lot of dead roots. This is the only area where I did end up performing some root work to clear out the dead roots. This is the one area where I found a lot of very dense organic soil. The soil was dramatically different in this one area compared to the rest of the tree and it took me a while to tease away as much as I could. In the end I didn't even remove the entire pocket of dense organic soil but I did not want to be more aggressive and decided to stop after clearing away what I felt like was a decent portion of the problem soil:
I realize this operation is a setback for the tree and it will now need to use more energy to re-establish itself in the new container, so there will likely be less growth this season as a result. However my hope is that over a 3 year horizon this will enable the tree to become much healthier than the previous container, and hopefully clearing out the overly compacted soil in that on area below the front will help the tree establish more growth as well. It also gives me significantly more peace of mind to know that the root ball is relatively stable aside from that one section and there aren't any significant issues below the soil that would lead to further decline or some kind of emergency operation outside of the repotting window. As much as I would like to take
@yenling83's suggestion to put the box on the ground I don't have a space that would allow me to safely do that so for now we have to keep it on this stand.